Significant Growth in China's Prebaked Anode Exports in 2024 with Strong Market Demand; Steady Growth Is Expected in 2025 [SMM Analysis]

SMM, January 23:

According to customs data, China's export volume of prebaked anodes in December 2024 was 1.984 million mt, up 43.35% YoY but down 11.33% MoM. The estimated export unit price of prebaked anodes in November was approximately $643.47/mt, down 8.7% YoY but up 1.45% MoM. In 2024, China's cumulative export volume of prebaked anodes reached 2.1714 million mt, up 23.18% YoY.

From the perspective of domestic export regions, China's prebaked anode exports in 2024 were mainly concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan provinces. Among them, Shandong's export volume was 1.6365 million mt, accounting for 75% of the total and ranking first, with a 33.68% increase compared to 2023. Jiangsu followed with an export volume of 209,000 mt, accounting for 10% of the total, down 13.61% compared to 2023. Hunan ranked third with an export volume of 147,000 mt, accounting for 7% of the total, down 9.52% compared to 2023.

From the perspective of export destinations, China's prebaked anodes were exported to 29 countries in 2024, with Malaysia, Canada, and the UAE being the main destinations, accounting for 48% of the total export volume. The export volume to Malaysia was approximately 548,600 mt, accounting for 25% of the total, up 2.25% compared to 2023. The export volume to Canada was 266,100 mt, accounting for 12% of the total, down 5.11% compared to 2023. The export volume to the UAE was approximately 247,300 mt, accounting for 11% of the total, up 139.61% compared to 2023. Additionally, export orders to Indonesia and Oman also showed significant increases.

Overall, China's prebaked anode exports in 2024 demonstrated a clear growth trend. Although the export volume in December slightly declined, it remained at a relatively high level. Notably, export orders to the UAE and Indonesia increased by over 100%, reflecting strong demand in these markets. In terms of export prices, affected by the weak raw material market, the export prices of prebaked anodes in 2024 remained stable with a slight decline, with an annual average price of approximately $667/mt, down 24.6% compared to 2023. Looking ahead to 2025, feedback from enterprises indicates generally positive order conditions, suggesting that export volumes are expected to grow steadily. Considering the anticipated increase in petroleum coke prices in 2025, the export price center is expected to gradually rise, which is a positive signal for the industry's development. Overall, despite challenges in the raw material market, China's prebaked anode exports performed strongly in 2024 and are expected to maintain growth momentum in 2025.